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When Human Judgment Works Well, and When it Doesn’t

Harvard Business Review

A number of people noted that Nobel prize-winner Daniel Kahneman’s work, nicely summarized in his 2011 book Thinking Fast and Slow , influenced their thinking a great deal. What’s really interesting, though, is that the two of them ended up in complete agreement about the conditions required for good intuition to develop.

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Ethical Consumerism Isn’t Dead, It Just Needs Better Marketing

Harvard Business Review

Now that the general idea of combining ethics and shopping has become a mainstream concept, there is a developing a backlash against the idea that consumers might effect change through their purchasing habits. ” I understand the attraction to markets and their efficiency; I am a marketing professor.

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Why Companies Are Betting Against Big Ideas

Harvard Business Review

This idea of prospect theory, developed by Tversky and Kahneman and reported in a classic 1979 article (for which the Nobel prize was awarded) demonstrated that individuals do not make decisions rationally by selecting options with the highest expected value, because they are risk-averse and 'losses loom larger than gains.'.

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Reframe Your Strategy to Avoid Hidden Biases

Harvard Business Review

In a recent HBR article , Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony outline the questions that a decision-maker needs to ask before making a strategic bet. These biases arise from what Kahneman and his long-time research partner Amos Tversky call framing. These will often be the ones that appeal less.

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How to Improve Your Decision-Making Skills

Harvard Business Review

Should we bring product A or B to market? Which marketing strategy should we use? ” The first step, then, is to use a checklist to minimize decision biases, much like the one suggested by Kahneman. In this case, you have to change your expectation, not your marketing strategy. Why is that?

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Why Western Digital Firms Have Failed in China

Harvard Business Review

However, they have all failed in China, the world’s largest digital market. Google, for example, has succeeded in dominating many foreign markets that have radically different political systems and cultures (including Indonesia, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia). imposing technological platforms developed for the U.S.

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The Hidden Indicators of a Failing Project

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman, in his book Thinking Fast and Slow , recounts a bit of a planning pickle he and his Israeli Ministry of Education colleagues encountered when estimating how long it would take to complete a high school textbook on judgment and decision making. government! all of these things!),