The Horizons Tracker

OCTOBER 22, 2021

Scenario planning was first popularized by Herman Khan in the 1950s at the RAND corporation as a way to describe the future by outlining various ways in which it could potentially unfold. ” Scenarios of your life. It’s an approach that futurist April Rinne believes can equally be applied to our careers.

Scenario Planning 127

Scenario Planning Uncertainty Planning Construction 127

Lead from Within

JULY 25, 2024

For instance, I worked with a CEO who regularly conducted scenario planning exercises with his team, helping them navigate a major industry shift with minimal disruption. I recently coached a leader who encouraged his employees to dedicate time each week to exploring new ideas, resulting in the development of a groundbreaking product.

Long-term 192

Long-term Scenario Planning Trends Execution 192

N2Growth Blog

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

Scenarios and scenario-based planning are widely recognized as valuable tools in setting organizations’ visions and strategies. Shell is the most famed for their scenarios and their process for developing them and using them. Those who know scenario planning know that its value isn’t in “predicting the future.”

Scenario Planning 150

Scenario Planning Strategic Planning Planning Budgeting 150

Leading Blog

DECEMBER 15, 2020

We can develop scenarios to “identify and test how and where the future and the present meet.” Different from experiments that “reveal immediate internal features of a complex system, scenarios explore where the internal organization meets the external environment, where uncertainties lurk beyond anyone’s control.”.

How To 385

How To Scenario Planning Uncertainty Influence 385

Lead from Within

OCTOBER 14, 2024

By forecasting potential outcomes and scenarios, you can proactively adapt your strategies and make decisions that position your organization for success. Scenario Planning : AI can simulate multiple scenarios and assess the potential impact of different decisions.

Scenario Planning 105

Scenario Planning Trends Leadership Styles Efficiency 105

Next Level Blog

APRIL 20, 2021

Running the plays requires urgency; developing the playbook requires patience. Part of the work of leadership right now is to have the patience to bring people together to do some scenario planning and diagnostic work on how the world and your marketplace has changed during the pandemic.

Scenario Planning 246

Scenario Planning Learning-by-Doing Executive Coaching Follow-up 246

N2Growth Blog

DECEMBER 16, 2023

The concept delves more deeply than mere regulatory compliance, stretching towards a proactive approach that involves risk anticipation, scenario planning, and sound decision-making processes. The essence of governance excellence lies in nurturing a culture that upholds transparency, stakeholder engagement, and continuous improvement.

Compliance 243

Compliance Ethics Efficiency Metrics 243

Leading Blog

NOVEMBER 23, 2018

The art of making farsighted decisions “with as much wisdom as possible lies not in forcing that map to match some existing template, but instead in developing the kind of keen vision required to see the situation as it truly is. And the best way to develop that vision is to get different pairs of eyes on the problem.”

Cost-Benefit Analysis 303

Cost-Benefit Analysis Scenario Planning Storytelling Objective 303

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 16, 2024

Just as archers are taught to concentrate intensely and channel all their energy into the perfect shot through rigorous mental training, including meditation and self-talk, businesspeople can use similar techniques to develop transformative focus.

Training 25

Training Scenario Planning Stress Energy 25

Lead Change Blog

APRIL 4, 2016

Scenario planning, a strategy first employed by Royal Dutch Shell, brings experts from a wide range of fields together to discuss actions if different scenarios take place. Scenario planning allows you to think out—in advance—various options.

Scenario Planning 150

Scenario Planning Airlines Leadership Fashion 150

The Horizons Tracker

MAY 19, 2020

The researchers developed a mathematical model that was calibrated using the age distribution of covid-19 cases, alongside all those hospitalized and dying from the disease. Scenario planning. A safe distance. This allowed them to forecast the short and long-term impact of the lifting of various lockdown measures. “Our

Long-term 104

Long-term Scenario Planning Short-term Guidelines 104

Skip Prichard

DECEMBER 9, 2021

In the depths of the COVID-19 lockdown, executives at Salesforce developed a long-term scenario-planning tool to help enterprise customers rediscover their decision-making confidence in a world turned upside down. Would you share one of your many examples of putting it in action?

Storytelling 131

Storytelling How To Audience Scenario Planning 131

Center for Creative Leadership

JUNE 22, 2020

Carefully developed long term plans can become obsolete overnight as we face futures that are undeniably different than what we anticipated. Rather than waiting to be caught by surprise, they revel in scenario planning, learning about future trends, and imagining how they can influence the world to their advantage.

Leadership 106

Leadership How To Long-term Short-term 106

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 23, 2013

It''s the rare CIO who applies scenario planning to the business of IT. Yet, in a function driven by innovation and the uncertainties surrounding the application and implication of future technologies, not using scenarios is tantamount to management malpractice.

Scenario Planning 8

Scenario Planning CIO Planning Uncertainty 8

In the CEO Afterlife

SEPTEMBER 12, 2011

Separately, but on the same topic, a question for you, John: How do you feel about “scenario planning” exercises as a way to try to imagine and think through the most probable crises that may confront a particular company or organization? September 13, 2011 at 10:30 pm. Thanks for the comment, Paul.

Crisis Management 268

Crisis Management Crisis CEO Management 268

HR Digest

OCTOBER 7, 2020

Based on their work experience in the new role, they can inform the HR from an outsider’s perspective what skills a candidate needs from day one and what skills can be provided through proper training & development. As for the list of required skill set, organizations need to realize that many of these skills are transferable.

Management 98

Management Supply Chain Crisis Scenario Planning 98

Harvard Business Review

MAY 2, 2018

It first influenced business decades ago, through the development of an unmistakably hard skill that senior managers must master: strategic planning. Leaders today would be wise to learn from the past and to view strategic planning and mindfulness together. Planning well, in his estimation, required “training the mind.”

Scenario Planning 13

Scenario Planning Strategic Planning Kleiner Management 13

Harvard Business Review

JULY 10, 2014

The product of an MIT CTL research initiative called Future Freight Flows, it is a method of convening conversations and achieving alignment, based on the practice of scenario planning. This makes scenario planning an effective approach for long-range freight transportation planning.

Planning 8

Planning Scenario Planning Transportation Workshop 8

Strategy Driven

OCTOBER 25, 2013

Business development. The process of strategy development is not esoteric. Next comes Crisis Planning. What-if scenario planning is similar to the processes utilized in overall company strategic planning and visioning. The crisis plan must be part of the bigger process, not an adjunct or afterthought.

Crisis Management 75

Crisis Management Crisis Risk Management Budgeting 75

Strategy Driven

NOVEMBER 2, 2012

Business development. Have you done scenario planning of measures beyond your immediate control, i.e. external factors which profoundly impact your livelihood? Readily measurable values: Time and cost of product development-service delivery cycles. Running the business. Body of Knowledge. The Big Picture.

Strategic Planning 66

Strategic Planning Budgeting Planning Competitive Advantage 66

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 23, 2015

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. For example, the group defined the education driver as “the degree to which US elementary through higher education has developed curricula to produce science and technical talent.”

Kahneman 8

Kahneman Scenario Planning Pharmaceuticals Workshop 8

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 6, 2014

In health care, these tools are changing the way doctors identify people at risk of developing certain diseases; in fashion, they crunch purchasing data to anticipate trends; sales and marketing experts use them to tailor ad campaigns. This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning.

Strategy 12

Strategy Scenario Planning Scientific Management Supply Chain 12

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 31, 2016

Originating from agile software development, the sprint has entered the business mainstream as an increasingly popular means to accelerate business model, product, or service innovation. But the sprint format isn’t just for development and design anymore. Can you run fast and go deep at the same time?

Agility 8

Agility Strategy Short-term Long-term 8

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 6, 2014

In health care, these tools are changing the way doctors identify people at risk of developing certain diseases; in fashion, they crunch purchasing data to anticipate trends; sales and marketing experts use them to tailor ad campaigns. This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning.

Strategy 8

Strategy Scenario Planning Scientific Management Supply Chain 8

Harvard Business Review

NOVEMBER 8, 2018

But that technology is still in its early stages, and as it develops you can be sure that bad actors will be working on ways to defeat it. In addition, companies must begin to factor deep fakes and other reality-distortion techniques into their crisis-scenario planning.

Reputation 10

Reputation Company Video Crisis 10

Harvard Business Review

NOVEMBER 1, 2011

To minimize their negative impact, there are two steps that managers can take: Plan ahead (as much as you can). One way to reinforce this assumption is to engage in scenario planning before pulling the trigger, preferably by engaging people who will be affected by the change. Test the waters.

Airlines 14

Airlines Supply Chain Scenario Planning Travel 14

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 28, 2017

Read more from Korn Ferry: How to Develop Leaders Who Can Drive Strategic Change. Agile businesses run planning and execution in parallel, investing in scenario planning so they can act promptly when opportunities arise. But for traditional firms, they’re a whole new world. They are also prepared to take risks.

Organization 8

Organization SPM Content Agility 8

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 23, 2011

These firsts-of-their-kind developments require unprecedented degrees of creativity.". The kind of thinking generated by scenario planning, video/war-gaming, and design thinking need to move from the margins of corporations and government organizations to core strategic positions.

Uncertainty 15

Uncertainty Supply Chain Scenario Planning Sharpe 15

Harvard Business Review

APRIL 3, 2015

By using the technology to play the role of customer, investor, product developer, factory worker, and so on — making the kinds of choices they must make — board members could see the business (somewhat literally) from various stakeholders’ vantage points. (Some headsets really immerse you in the experience.)

Scenario Planning 8

Scenario Planning Tools Technology Compliance 8

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 31, 2013

First we see major shifts in demand: developing economies such as China and India are morphing from the world's source of low-cost manufacturing capacity to the world's best market opportunities. They will not, it must be noted, alter how the role of manufacturing evolves as economies develop.

Globalization 9

Globalization Supply Chain Pharmaceuticals McKinsey 9

Harvard Business Review

MAY 29, 2017

These can be laid out in scenario plans with specific mitigation actions assigned to help businesses react quickly if necessary. Despite the turmoil in Russian-Western relations, having a plan to respond quickly can help multinationals weather, manage, or even capitalize on political developments.

Policies 9

Policies Supply Chain Politics Long-term 9

Harvard Business Review

MAY 2, 2016

Google’s Chade-Meng Tan , has developed dozens of such workplace meditation modules that could fit neatly into planning retreats. Explore alternative scenarios: It’s also possible to inject an element of mindfulness without meditating at all.

Strategy 8

Strategy Goleman Strategic Planning Parcell 8

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 16, 2016

It uses two currencies, the convertible Peso (CUP) valued on par with the dollar and fully tradeable, and the Cuban Peso (CUC) valued at a rate of 24:1 with the dollar, which creates severe constraints for the development of Cuba’s export sector.

GDP 8

GDP Telecommunications Scenario Planning Travel 8

Harvard Business Review

FEBRUARY 14, 2011

Developments in the Middle East — first the removal of long-time Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011 and now Hosni Mubarak's stepping down in Egypt — suggest that authoritarian regimes in the region are not immune to "people power." In terms of scenario planning , firms would think about alternative paths.

Strategy 15

Strategy Politics Short-term Long-term 15

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 13, 2012

In the run-up to the London 2012 Olympics, for example, the global financial crisis caused private developers for the Olympic Village project to withdraw, requiring a refinancing package backed by government. Ensuring readiness for Games-time (in Olympic-speak) now involves strategic pre-emption through stress-testing and scenario planning.

Risk Management 15

Risk Management Management Committee Insurance 15

Harvard Business Review

MAY 15, 2018

Understand possible scenarios. After the Brexit team understands the broader impact of Brexit on the business, it needs to start scenario planning around potential developments of Brexit negotiations and the UK economy.

Planning 8

Planning Supply Chain Strategic Planning Workshop 8

Harvard Business Review

SEPTEMBER 9, 2015

Companies should anticipate this trend and start developing “value pricing” and less expensive products. Demand forecasting may become more challenging as demand patterns change, and companies may be advised to look into forecasting methods based on scenario planning rather than historical patterns.

Supply Chain 8

Supply Chain Retail Crisis Operations 8