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The Surprising Power of Business Experiments

Skip Prichard

Daniel Kahneman. And, as anyone who closely follows simulation and prototyping tools knows, their use has become pervasive in manufacturing businesses, even though companies still grapple with the integration and management issues I wrote about in 2003. We are too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.”

Power 99
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Crack the Leadership Code

Skip Prichard

Daniel Kahneman. If you’re operating as a know-it-all, you have an underlying belief that that any new stuff really isn’t of much value. Here’s a shocking statistic: two-thirds of senior managers can’t name their firm’s top priorities! I recently spoke with him about his work. We’re blind to our blindness.

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Why Companies Are Betting Against Big Ideas

Harvard Business Review

This idea of prospect theory, developed by Tversky and Kahneman and reported in a classic 1979 article (for which the Nobel prize was awarded) demonstrated that individuals do not make decisions rationally by selecting options with the highest expected value, because they are risk-averse and 'losses loom larger than gains.'.

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The Persistence of the Innovator's Dilemma

Harvard Business Review

As this argument holds, the short-term pressure of the capital markets, coupled with management incentives tied tightly to stock prices, make it hard for companies to investment in new growth businesses. The halo effect leads companies to assuming their best operators can seamlessly shift into innovation work. Any other ideas? *

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Better Ways of Thinking About Risks

Harvard Business Review

As detailed in Daniel Kahneman's best-selling book, Thinking, Fast and Slow , it is only human to misjudge how much we know — and how much others know. It includes decision analysis, game theory, and operations research. Only such evaluation allows leaders need to know if their experts are overconfident or underconfident.

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Your Judgment of Risk Is Compromised

Harvard Business Review

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky provide perhaps the best theoretical framework in which to understand the phenomenon. We will pay far more for a medical operation that increases our chance of surviving from 0% to 1% than one that increases it from 10% to 11%. MORE ON MANAGING RISKY BEHAVIORS. A Beekeeper's Perspective on Risk.

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How Could I Miss That? Jamie Dimon on the Hot Seat

Harvard Business Review

At a meeting on April 8, Drew assured Dimon and the operating committee of JPMorgan that the trades were being well managed and would work out. Many NASA and Morton Thiokol managers failed to notice the obvious data suggesting it was too cold to launch the Space Shuttle Challenger in 1986. MORE ON MANAGING RISKY BEHAVIORS.

Banking 14