Harvard Business Review

JULY 28, 2020

A conversation with consultant Peter Scoblic on scenario planning lessons from the U.S. Coast Guard.

Scenario Planning 15

Scenario Planning Planning Strategy Consultative 15

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 30, 2023

And fourth, scenario plan so that you have clear options for moving forward. Second, openly acknowledge that a setback has occurred to prevent backsliding. Third, adopt a growth mindset to help others strive for improvement instead of getting stuck on autopilot.

Project 29

Project Scenario Planning Management Tools 29

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 16, 2024

Just as archers practice visualization and cognitive reframing to manage stress and maintain composure in challenging situations, leaders can also use scenario planning and self-talk to become more resilient.

Training 28

Training Scenario Planning Stress Energy 28

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 23, 2013

It''s the rare CIO who applies scenario planning to the business of IT. Yet, in a function driven by innovation and the uncertainties surrounding the application and implication of future technologies, not using scenarios is tantamount to management malpractice.

Scenario Planning 9

Scenario Planning CIO Planning Uncertainty 9

Harvard Business Review

APRIL 15, 2024

Start by proactively envisioning worst-case scenarios through brainstorming sessions, scenario planning, and risk assessments. From the takeoff and landing of a space shuttle to managing uncontrollable bleeding in the operating room, there are vital lessons to be learned from these industries and adapted into others.

Health Care 28

Health Care Uncertainty Scenario Planning Brainstorming 28

Harvard Business Review

MAY 2, 2018

Through his unique lens, he came to create what we know as scenario planning — a widely used strategic planning practice that now spans all sectors. An HBR contributor, he wrote two seminal articles about Shell and scenario planning in 1985. Planning well, in his estimation, required “training the mind.”

Scenario Planning 15

Scenario Planning Strategic Planning Kleiner Management 15

Harvard Business Review

JULY 10, 2014

The product of an MIT CTL research initiative called Future Freight Flows, it is a method of convening conversations and achieving alignment, based on the practice of scenario planning. This makes scenario planning an effective approach for long-range freight transportation planning.

Planning 8

Planning Scenario Planning Transportation Workshop 8

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 6, 2014

This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. Scientific management and scenario planning, while forward-thinking, rely on information that’s in the rear view mirror. It’s an entirely different animal.

Strategy 15

Strategy Scenario Planning Scientific Management Supply Chain 15

Harvard Business Review

NOVEMBER 1, 2011

To minimize their negative impact, there are two steps that managers can take: Plan ahead (as much as you can). One way to reinforce this assumption is to engage in scenario planning before pulling the trigger, preferably by engaging people who will be affected by the change.

Airlines 15

Airlines Supply Chain Scenario Planning Travel 15

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 30, 2017

For example, you may be strategizing on a project that requires scenario planning. To simulate the scenario and possible outcomes, you can’t be too rigid. This kind of scenario planning will take your mind off constant focus but also prepare your brain to reach your goals.

Scenario Planning 15

Scenario Planning Self-aware Energy Goal 15

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 6, 2011

For example, when it comes to preparation for a possible showdown involving North Korea, there has been no discussion or scenario planning between American and Chinese top brass — not a recipe for good crisis management.

Politics 15

Politics Gordon Scenario Planning Globalization 15

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 23, 2011

The kind of thinking generated by scenario planning, video/war-gaming, and design thinking need to move from the margins of corporations and government organizations to core strategic positions. They need to be embraced by leaders to enable them to deal with a world of radical uncertainty.

Uncertainty 15

Uncertainty Supply Chain Scenario Planning Sharpe 15

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 23, 2015

A way around this fallacy, we’ve found, is a speed-dating version of scenario planning, one that takes hours rather than months. Obviously, a brief workshop like this one shouldn’t be used to shape strategy; that requires true scenario planning.

Kahneman 8

Kahneman Scenario Planning Pharmaceuticals Workshop 8

Harvard Business Review

AUGUST 13, 2012

Ensuring readiness for Games-time (in Olympic-speak) now involves strategic pre-emption through stress-testing and scenario planning. Risk mitigation is now integrated into decision-making and operations, and no longer treated as just an input into the calculation of insurance premiums.

Risk Management 17

Risk Management Management Committee Insurance 17

Harvard Business Review

NOVEMBER 8, 2018

In addition, companies must begin to factor deep fakes and other reality-distortion techniques into their crisis-scenario planning. Pushing these platforms to take the future of misinformation seriously would be good not only for corporations but also for society at large.

Reputation 14

Reputation Company Video Crisis 14

First Friday Book Synopsis

MAY 23, 2012

Schoemaker is a pioneer in the field of decision sciences, among the first to combine the practical ideas of decision theory, behavioral economics, scenario planning, and risk management into a set of strategic decision-making tools for managers.

Scenario Planning 85

Scenario Planning Risk Management Tools Planning 85

Harvard Business Review

MAY 14, 2013

At the heart of the future-back process is a consensus view of your company''s desired future state.This isn''t scenario planning, where you consider a range of possibilities. But in turbulent times, these approaches can lead companies to miss critical market inflection points.

Scenario Planning 9

Scenario Planning Consensus Strategic Planning Innovation 9

Harvard Business Review

FEBRUARY 14, 2011

In terms of scenario planning , firms would think about alternative paths. Let's apply this four-part approach, then, to the problem of setting strategy for Egypt. In practical terms, what kinds of analysis would it lead firms investing there to conduct?

Strategy 15

Strategy Politics Long-term Short-term 15

Harvard Business Review

SEPTEMBER 5, 2013

Scenario planning is as essential for strategy formulation as it is for the design of next generation technologies and industries. Thinking in terms of scenarios forces people to rigorously examine fundamental assumptions and unexpected risks.

Class 13

Class Education Supply Chain Sports 13

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 6, 2014

This isn’t a retread of scientific management , nor is it an updated take on scenario planning. Scientific management and scenario planning, while forward-thinking, rely on information that’s in the rear view mirror. It’s an entirely different animal.

Strategy 8

Strategy Scenario Planning Scientific Management Supply Chain 8

Harvard Business Review

APRIL 3, 2015

It would be an antidote to the insularity that so many boards are criticized for, and a useful complement to the simulations and war-game tools that help with scenario planning and anticipating competitors’ moves. The board of Communities in Schools , a U.S.

Scenario Planning 8

Scenario Planning Tools Technology Compliance 8

Harvard Business Review

MAY 29, 2017

These can be laid out in scenario plans with specific mitigation actions assigned to help businesses react quickly if necessary. Then, firms need to think through the types of political and macroeconomic events (e.g. further sanctions, oil price drop, protests, etc.) that could influence the economy (e.g.

Policies 12

Policies Supply Chain Politics Operations 12

Harvard Business Review

MAY 2, 2016

Harvard Business Review contributors Daniel Goleman and Bill George have described mindfulness as a means to listen more deeply and guide actions through clear intention rather than emotional whims or reactive patterns. Explore alternative scenarios: It’s also possible to inject an element of mindfulness without meditating at all.

Strategy 8

Strategy Goleman Strategic Planning Parcell 8

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 31, 2013

For example, in a world of rising and complex risk, they will need to adopt planning systems that don't rely on point forecasts, but use scenario planning. Many companies will need to build new capabilities.

Globalization 12

Globalization Supply Chain Pharmaceuticals McKinsey 12

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 31, 2016

Sure, the value of an in-depth discovery phase; comprehensive, quantitative, and qualitative research; stakeholder interviews; scenario planning; and alignment are undisputed. And how often have you crafted a meticulous three-year strategic plan, only to have it become obsolete after a few months, or even weeks?

Agility 8

Agility Strategy Short-term Long-term 8

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 28, 2017

Agile businesses run planning and execution in parallel, investing in scenario planning so they can act promptly when opportunities arise. Digitally sustainable organizations are agile: They think fast, decide fast, execute fast, fail fast, learn fast, and scale fast. They are also prepared to take risks.

Organization 8

Organization SPM Content Agility 8

Harvard Business Review

MARCH 16, 2016

The key to winning in Cuba will be to prepare with rigorous scenario planning in order to avoid being left on the sidelines once the market begins to bloom.

GDP 8

GDP Telecommunications Scenario Planning Travel 8

Harvard Business Review

SEPTEMBER 9, 2015

Demand forecasting may become more challenging as demand patterns change, and companies may be advised to look into forecasting methods based on scenario planning rather than historical patterns. Firms in the upstream echelons of the supply chain should tighten their belts fast and hard but understand that this is to be expected.

Supply Chain 8

Supply Chain Retail Crisis Operations 8

Harvard Business Review

FEBRUARY 2, 2015

Interestingly, a smaller group were trained in scenario planning , but this turned out not to be as useful as the training in probabilistic reasoning.). Humans are surprisingly bad at this, and tend to overestimate the chances that the future will be different than the past. Rushing produces bad predictions.

Open-book 8

Open-book Participative Sample Training 8

Harvard Business Review

MAY 15, 2018

Understand possible scenarios. After the Brexit team understands the broader impact of Brexit on the business, it needs to start scenario planning around potential developments of Brexit negotiations and the UK economy.

Planning 8

Planning Supply Chain Strategic Planning Price 8

Harvard Business Review

OCTOBER 25, 2012

Scenario planning is impossible. They told me that in the world where there are no precedents, you have to trust your own judgment. There are multiple ways of getting around each challenge, and a variety of consequences that can come from your actions. So instead you simply move forward in the way you know in your heart to be right.

Uncertainty 18

Uncertainty Scenario Planning Media Planning 18

Harvard Business Review

JUNE 15, 2018

Similarly, a steel company built a customized scenario-planning tool into its control tower platform that increases supply chain responsiveness and resilience.

Supply Chain 8

Supply Chain Management Retail Technology 8

Harvard Business Review

JANUARY 14, 2015

An intrepid energy industry executive we know takes a novel, planning-based approach to managing politics, and we’ve taught the same method to many female executives over the years. To inject some predictability into the most crucial of organizational interactions, he uses scenario planning to map out strategies.

Politics 8

Politics Strategy 360-Degree Feedback Mentor 8

Harvard Business Review

JUNE 7, 2017

This requires scenario planning, thoughtful modeling of potential outcomes, an assessment of management’s capacity to drive transformational change in the business, and board capacity to choose and incentivize a competent management team.

Tips 8

Tips Supply Chain Proposal Decentralization 8

Harvard Business Review

JUNE 20, 2017

Many of the companies we work with that have operations in Mexico have taken up scenario planning to prepare for a range of potential economic and political changes in the country that could affect their businesses. Navigating the Next Two Years in Mexico.

Supply Chain 12

Supply Chain Depreciation Uncertainty Marketing 12