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This idea of prospect theory, developed by Tversky and Kahneman and reported in a classic 1979 article (for which the Nobel prize was awarded) demonstrated that individuals do not make decisions rationally by selecting options with the highest expected value, because they are risk-averse and 'losses loom larger than gains.'.
The psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky demonstrated quite convincingly that we human beings are not the model-optimizing "rational" actors that many economists historically believed we are. Those who see the world probabilistically seem to better navigate volatile environments because they are wired to embrace uncertainty.
It feels like it’s got a little bit of Kahneman and Tversky in it. That is, potentially amazing technology if you can only figure out how it works. Even if it’s not irrational to base your judgments on recent experience, it doesn’t feel like the rational man of ‘60s and ‘70s rational-expectations economics.
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